Erin, the first hurricane of the season, exploded to a Category 5 hurricane Saturday, and despite fluctuations in intensity, the storm is remaining formidable this weekend. Here's where it could head in the week ahead.

Officials in the northern Caribbean are warning of heavy rains and dangerous swells as Tropical Storm Erin approaches the region.

Over the weekend, Erin is expected to rapidly intensify all the way to a Category 3 hurricane. By Monday, as the storm steers away from the Caribbean and toward Bermuda, it's now forecast to hit Category 4 with 130 mph sustained winds. Some long-term computer models suggest it could get even stronger and hit Category 5 in the open ocean.

A westward-moving tropical wave could produce an area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic late in the week of Aug. 18, the hurricane center said on Aug. 16. The center shows a 20% chance of storm formation over the next week.